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Small swings, high drama: why UK polls are less volatile than they seem – in charts

In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences Cabinet reshuffles, party infighting, policy reversals, byelections, defections and apparently huge…

1 report1 sourceMar 23, 2026, 7:00 AM
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The GuardianMar 23, 2026, 7:00 AM

Small swings, high drama: why UK polls are less volatile than they seem – in charts

In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences Cabinet reshuffles, party infighting, policy reversals, byelections, defections and apparently huge swings in support – the UK’s political news cycle feels especially relentless at the moment. But if you look closely at the polls since last year’s local elections, remarkably little has changed. Continue reading...

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